MIA

Both I, and the apparently the Nebraska offense has been MIA in the past two weeks.  Let's review a few things from the last two weeks.

Texas Tech 31, Nebraska 10

You see it all the time, after a giant win, teams often have letdown games the next week.  Earlier this year USC lost to UW, but of their last 6 losses to Pac 10 teams, the team that upset them went just 2-4 the following week.  Nebraska was supposed to beat Missouri, but the way the achieved the win made it almost feel like it was a giant upset.  They played poorly in the driving rain and came back to win with a flurry of 4th quarter touchdowns.  Nebraska got caught looking ahead a bit I think.  A lot of Husker fans were salivating (me included) at winning the next 3 games handily and being 7-1 going into the home game vs. Oklahoma. 

Texas Tech showed that Nebraska was vulnerable, and their defense wasn't invincible.  The offense lacked power, running, and consistency.  Roy Helu, Jr. was at best 75% healthy and it showed.  He had decent runs but couldn't break out.  A lot of the fall came on Zac Lee.  Lee was unable to produce a big play that the Huskers needed without Helu, Jr. being healthy.  The fall was somewhat unwarranted because the rest of the Huskers could not help Lee out either.  A dropped backward pass was simply a mental blunder that Lee couldn't control.  Also, Lee had plenty of passes that just fell through the hands of the receivers.  Question marks were raised at QB and the OL, but the WRs need to make plays when the running game isn't working.

The loss hurt, but Nebraska was still in a good position to take the Big XII North because Kansas and Missouri also lost.

Iowa State 9, Nebraska 7

This loss was what has Nebraska fans scrambling today.  A hellish 8 turnovers, including 4 inside the 5 yard line.  Lee got the start, and I believe he deserves to be the starter still today, and threw 3 INTs.  One wasn't his fault, possibly 2 (one was on 4th and long in the last two minutes).  Nebraska backs looked like they'd never played organized contact football before, fumbling the ball almost every inopportune time.  Again, it comes back to making big plays.  Nebraska moved the ball well but made inexcusable errors.  Nebraska backs and receivers didn't make the plays they needed to, to get the pressure off of Lee.

There is so much talk about Nebraska finding an offensive identity.  Against Iowa State, the offense actually looked very effective.  Tray Robinson looked superb running the ball and he can backup Roy Helu, Jr. as long as Burkhead is out.  Question answered.  Lee moved the ball pretty well, and Nebraska would've scored 5 or 6 times without the fumbles.  Niles Paul caught a deep pass and just made another huge mistake by seemingly fumbling without even getting hit.  Nebraska needs to stick with their offensive identity but just execute more effectively.  Against Texas Tech, it didn't execute on a macro level, it didn't move the ball.  Against Iowa State, they executed on a macro level, but made many micro mistakes (fumbles, interceptions).  When it is put together (and it will) Nebraska will be the team we saw dominate Sun Belt foes.

Outlook

Nebraska's defense is for real.  The offense just needs to relax and put some points on the board and they'll be fine.  Nebraska can still win the Big XII North, probably even with a lose to Oklahoma.  These losses will hopefully fuel them for future games.  The past two weeks have shown that any team (other than maybe Texas) can lose to any other team.  Teams like Texas A&M, Iowa State, Colorado, and Kansas State can take down upper level teams which hurt Nebraska, but also could help them.  If the Huskers can take down Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, and Colorado, they will be playing in the Big XII Championship game

Inconsistent

As inconsistent as this blog may be, the Huskers play has been equally as inconsistent. More to follow on the Nebraska 31-10 loss to Texas Tech...

Keys to the Game

Well, it's killing me, game time is in almost 24 hours.  So here is my generic, predictable "Keys to the Game" segment.

Nebraska needs to...

*Stop the Quarterback.

The Quarterback will most likely be Steven Sheffield, the "backup" for Taylor Potts.  Ndamukong Suh and Co. will need to keep him uncomfortable.  Sheffield will have his good throws, but its about keeping him uncomfortable and taking the least damage as possible.

*Help out Ndamukong Suh.

The Huskers have done a GREAT job this year at doing this.  Sure, Suh is the dominant player on the defense, but Crick, Allen, and Thomas have made him the player he is right now.  Texas Tech claims they will guard Suh one-on-one with guard Brandon Carter.  Is this true?  Probably not.  Looked for him to get help, opening up opportunities for the other 3 down lineman to help out.

*Be effective on Special Teams.

Or just not be inefficient on special teams.  Last week vs. Missouri was horrendous, and a few missteps again could affect the final outcome.

Nebraska needs to control...

*The clock.

I think this will always be a thing the Huskers need to control.  Their ability to play offense this week and control the clock and game, could keep Tech's offense and Sheffield off the field.  If the Huskers can sustain long drives and get points, Tech won't be able to answer every time.

*The running game.

Zac Lee was forced to throw the ball last week with a lack of a running game early on.  Until the last drive when the Helu, Jr. broke out, there was no running game.  When he was forced to make plays, he didn't respond well (initially).  Take the pressure off of Lee by making Tech put more men in the box.

*Detron Lewis

Lewis has 3 TD catches in the last 2 weeks, including 100 yards last week.  Kansas State had the greatest pass defense in the Big 12 heading into the game and got embarrassed.  The Husker secondary will truly be tested this week, unlike last week where Blaine Gabbert was hobbling around in the pouring rain.

Predictions

*A Nebraska receiver will have 100+ yards receiving.

May sound like a soft prediction, but only Niles Paul last week has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in a game.  Look for either Paul or Gilleylen to have huge plays and big yardage.

*A Nebraska back, other than Helu, Jr., will have 50+ yards and a touchdown

This is tough.  I am going to count Zac Lee in this category.  Look for Lee or a backup back (such as Ward, Okafor, Mendoza) to get some running plays and some yards to take the emphasis and load off of Helu, Jr.  Or maybe, we'll see more designed runs with wide receivers, such as the playmaking Niles Paul.

*Nebraska will win.

And by double digits.  Nebraska has yet to not cover the spread (even when they lost), look for the trend to continue tomorrow afternoon.  The Huskers are a better team on paper and are playing in the comfort of Memorial Stadium.  Plus, they played much better than Tech last year and may be playing for a little redemption.

Final Score: 32-17.

*Nebraska will get their blackshirts next week.

Pelini held off so that the Huskers would continue with intensity.  After this week, look for them to get rewarded and creep closer and closer to the top 10 nationally.  The defense will give up more points than averaged, but still will do just fine.

My Beef with Regional Coverage

I currently reside in Pullman, WA in the NW part of the United States.  From previous experience (Virginia Tech-Nebraska game), I expected to get a shafted by the coverage map for Saturday's football games on ABC and ESPN.  I knew that the Pac-10 game would take precedence over any other game.  That, to the general area of where I live, is fair.  Personally, I would much rather watch Big 12 games, but Pac 10 games generate more excitement.  No argument.  However, I knew that there would be Standard Definition Distribution with a second game (I believe on ESPN2).  In other words, I would get another game, too!  This is where I was hoping to get lucky and get the Nebraska game.

Well, the coverage map came out and to say the least I was frustrated.  75% of the map was the Penn State/Minnesota game.  So, I'm left with Cal/UCLA and Penn State/Minnesota.  I just don't quite understand the reasoning of ABC and ESPN on this coverage map.

Its dissapointing to realize why the map is set up this way.  Nebraska is being punished, in a way, for having their fan base.  Non-Nebraska or surrounding area Nebraska fans (which there are TONS of) much pay for College GameDay to see these games.  ESPN and ABC are not picking the best game for the nation to watch, they are picking games based on what will get them MORE money.  It is sad.

They may try to make you feel better by offering it on ESPN360 (a completely online way of watching games), but don't be fooled.  Its just not the same, and the system is still pretty rough, with chronic freezing and restarting.

Evaluation

I did my "Keys to the Game" segment.  Let's evaluate how I did.

Nebraska needs to...

*Continue to "Bend, not Break."

How they did: Exactly that.  They made some dumb special teams plays that pinned themselves back.  They forced a missed FG and only allowed one touchdown.

*Score Touchdowns

How they did: It took them 3+ quarters, but they got 4 touchdowns.  4 teeders is enough for them to win almost every game this year with that kind of defense.

*Hold on to the Football

How they did: They fumbled way too much.  Three muffed punts and a lost fumble on a shotgun snap.  Luckily they only lost two fumbles which resulted in no points.  They didn't do a good job of holding onto the football.

Nebraska needs to control...

*The clock

How they did: Stats wise, it was almost right down the middle (Mizzou had the ball for a minute longer).  Nebraska did not run the ball nearly well enough early to control the game, therefore they didn't control the clock at all.  There were way too many punts (8) last night, although the weather surely contributed.

*Missouri's offensive line

How they did: Very, very well.  Although there were just 2 sacks, Ndamukong Suh was in Gabbert's head.  His first half sack and forced fumble hindered Gabbert for the rest of the game.  Missouri had just 91 yards on the ground and only found the endzone on a 1 yard plunge.  The Nebraska D-Line was the reason the Huskers won last night.

*Blaine Gabbert

How they did: Again, very, very well.  Forced his first interception of the year (and second), along with a fumble.  Gabbert has been known for his ability to perform in the second half, but last night was showed no indication of that.

Predictions...

*Each team will throw (at least) one interception.

How they did: Gabbert did throw at least one, but Zac Lee did not.  Although technically he didn't throw one, in the first three quarters he made a lot of "safe" throws, most of them inaccurate to the point that nobody could catch them.

*Special teams will play a role in the outcome.

How they did: WRONG.  Nebraska made some critical mistakes on special teams.  If they hadn't won, I would've been very correct.  The Huskers muffed 3 punts, had some shanked snaps and punts, along with a safety.  They got lucky it didn't play more of a role.

*Roy Helu, Jr. will have more than 25+ carries and 100+ yards.

How they did: Pretty wrong.  He didn't get either 25, nor 100 yards.  I was very wrong on how the rain would affect the play calls.  Watson stuck with a passing attack, and Helu was struggling running early.  He did end with 18 carries for 88 yards and TD, however.  Still decent.

*Nebraska will win.

How they did: Correct.  My score was too high for both teams.  I wasn't aware it'd be raining THAT hard.  However, the margin wasn't too off, and I'd rather err on the side of closer games and win by 17 any day.

Wow

Nebraska storms (this pun has been used way too much) back to beat Missouri 27-12.  Down 12 nothing more than a minute into the 4th quarter, Zac Lee and a stout defense put 20 points on the board in less than 3.5 minutes.

The greatest thing I saw was the ability for Nebraska to be down, against the odds, and make a great comeback.  They didn't show they were a team worth rooting for, for the first three quarters.  Then, out of nowhere, they showed they are top 15 football team (like we all hoped to believe).

Nebraska 27, Missouri 12

Keys to the Game

Ugh. Another one of these stupid Keys to the Game articles.  In reality, the key to the game is scoring more points than the other team.  However, I am much too anxious to wait to talk about Husker football, so I've got to write something.

Nebraska needs to...

*Continue to "Bend, not Break."

Give up yards, but don't give up.  Eliminate big scoring plays.  If a huge 50 yard pass ends up only giving Missouri 3 points, it's a winning situation in my point.

*Score touchdowns.  

Nebraska is better, show it.  Score touchdowns, make plays.  1 red-zone field goal, the rest need to be touchdowns.

*Hold on to the football.  

There haven't been problems holding on to the ball.  Watching Helu, Jr. drop the ball into the end zone last game (although I thought he scored before) is scary.  It will be rainy and wet and Nebraska can't afford turnovers.

Nebraska needs to control...

*The clock

Run the ball effectively.  The weather will make passing yards harder to come by.

*Missouri's offensive line

Derrick Washington is talented enough to run by the Cornhuskers.  If the Huskers can control the line of scrimmage and stay physical, Washington will have trouble getting into open spaces.  Force Blaine Gabbert to take the game into his hands.

*Blaine Gabbert

He can throw, no doubt about it.  He's a young starter and doesn't have the experience under pressure.  Nebraska needs to exploit this and keep him fearful in the pocket.  Make him throw the ball away, sack him, knock him down.

Predictions...

*Each team will throw (at least) one interception each.

Nebraska's defense will (hopefully) get pressure on Gabbert, forcing a bad throw or two.

Zac Lee didn't respond well to pressure in the VT game and some of tendencies may have been fixed, but not all of them.

*Special teams will play a role in the outcome.

Watch for a return touchdown, blocked kick (Nebraska has a knack for blocking field goals).

*Roy Helu, Jr. will have more than 25+ carries and 100+ yards.

The passing game will be down.  When the passing game has been going (in the Sun Belt games), Helu, Jr. averaged 15 carries.  However, when Lee struggled, Helu had 28 carries.  Expect the same trend.  Hopefully he'll get into the end zone twice or more

*Nebraska will win.

Missouri will have more turnovers.  They will also have the ball far less than the Huskers.  Their scoring opportunities will limited (in comparison to the other games).  The game will be decided in the fourth quarter, but not in the last 7 min.  

Final score: 31-20 Nebraska.

24+ hours

I feel like "this is Nebraska's true test" has been used too often.

But, this is the real deal.  Nebraska is playing a team they should beat, a team that is ranked in the top 25, a conference foe (even North foe), a rivalry game, a national televised premiere game on the road.  For once, they don't need to hope the other team plays poorly.

I still believe Nebraska is a better team then Virginia Tech, who is ranked very high.  However, I'd take this loss over any Big 12 loss.  The goal for this year is the Big 12 Championship Game and the road starts tomorrow night in Columbus.

Forecast is rain, lots of it.  At first, I was a little scared.  Then I realized this probably helps Nebraska, if anything.  They don't rely on as heavy of a pass attack as the Tigers do.  Nebraska can pound the ball and not need to pass as much.  This isn't saying that the Tigers can't run, but with Nebraska's defense, I feel like it will be harder for them.

Look for a preview later on...