Keys to the Game: Kansas State Edition

Well, the Cornhuskers face off with K-State on National Television come roughly 6 hours.  Winner takes the Big XII North, no strings attached.  Here's Nebraska's keys to the game:

Nebraska needs to:

*Keep running wild with Roy Helu, Jr.

Helu, Jr. has done a fabulous job the last two weeks to take the pressure off the quarterback to make big plays.  He has 100+ yards in both the victories vs. Oklahoma and Kansas.  He needs to carry the ball 20+ times for 100+ yards and at least a score to open the playbook up a bit

*Get KSU off the field on offense

I would be willing to bet that KSU's game plan is to hold onto the ball and clock as long as possible.  It's a smart strategy, the Husker offense has struggled and if you could limit the amount of opportunities they have, they'll score little.  The D needs to get some early stops and the O needs to prove it can move the football.

*Get an early interception

This will continue to KSU to rely on Daniel Thomas to run the ball on a stingy run defense.  If Grant Gregory doesn't have the confidence to go linearly with the ball, Nebraska can stop the one-sided offense of KSU.

Nebraska needs to control...

*KSU offense

Set the tone early.  Don't let the KSU pocket move to the outside.  Kansas did a great job of moving Todd Reesing out of the pocket.  Ndamukong Suh only had two tackles and the whole Nebraska D only registered one sack.  Look for Pelini (both of them) to have answers to this strategy.

*The KSU defensive line

The Husker O-Line finally came back to life last week.  Hopefully, they can keep it up.  If so, it'd be nice to get two 100 yard rushers and 3 rushing TDs.  Or at least enough of a rushing attack that it sets up play action dumps to Mike McNeill or bombs to Niles Paul.

*Their play within the red zone

The Cornhuskers have struggled in the red zone this season.  Against Oklahoma it could've cost them the game.  If the Huskers get into the red zone, they need to score EVERY time.  And they need touchdowns, not field goals.

Predictions

*Kansas State will out-clock the Huskers

Hopefully the time difference won't be significant, but I think the Wildcats will have more time of possession than the Huskers.  I'd be okay with being wrong with this prediction.

*Niles Paul will get increased touches/opportunities

Paul is, by far, the most explosive weapon the Huskers have.  Helu, Jr. is close, but when Paul gets into the open, he is close to unstoppable (barring he doesn't fumble without getting hit).  Look for Paul to get increased touches, balls thrown deep, reverses, screens, punt/kick returns.

*Nebraska 27, KSU 13

A little closer than the score, but Nebraska won't have to win it in the 4th quarter.  It'll 13-7 at halftime, and the Huskers will grind the 3rd quarter out and make the lead insurmountable.

Good Luck Cornhuskers, bring us the North Title!

Kansas Analysis

Nebraska 31, Kansas 17 - The score may not completely portray that the Huskers actually had to come back with just 7 min left in the game.  The Huskers grinded the ball.  What a difference a healthy Roy Helu, Jr. makes the Nebraska offense.  Zac Lee got the start (best option) and was able to manage the offense like he did in the non conference, non-BCS opponents against a Big 12 foe.

Roy Helu, Jr. had a big workload like he did earlier this season.  He pretty much cleared up Husker fans' minds that his shoulder is 100%.  His final stat-line was 28 carries for 156 yards and 2 TDs (he actually had a 3rd TD when he jumped on a fumble in the endzone).  Definitely the Nebraska player of the game.

Don't look now, but Zac Lee is slowly getting his confidence back.  He went 13-21 for 196 yards.  What was impressive was his throws downfield to Niles Paul, who had 154 of Lee's 196 yards.  Also, Mike McNeill finally got back into the picture with 4 receptions, tied for most grabs, with Paul.  Lee also showed he could run the ball when he took off down the field for a 34 yard scamper.  He ended up with 53 total yards rushing.

The defense looked a little more vulnerable than they normally have.  With that being said, 17 points is nothing to be worried about allowing.  The Husker defense is still the same defense.  Mark Mangino and the Kansas coaching staff tried something another foe hasn't, they moved the pocket.  Todd Reesing does well outside the tackle-box and gave Kansas an offensive shot vs. the Husker defense.  The Huskers still forced a turnover in the red zone and kept Briscoe/Meier to just one touchdown.  Look for other teams to try to get outside the pocket because the Husker D-line collapses a drop-back pocket.  Also, look for Carl Pelini and the Nebraska staff to implement more outside blitzes, such as the one sack the Huskers got on the night from the corner blitz.

Overall, the Huskers have put themselves in a winner-take-all game Saturday on National TV vs. Kansas State.  If they win, they'll have a showdown in December vs. Texas, putting themselves one (upset) win away from a BCS bowl game.  Nebraska had a rocky stretch with upsetting losses to Texas Tech and Iowa State, but have appeared to gain confidence at the right time.  Saturday should be an exciting day.

Some scary statistics

I wish I could claim I did the research for the subsequent information, but I did not.  All of this comes from the this article.

Here's a recap of the offensive statistics:

In the last month, Nebraska's offense is 0-44 on scoring a touchdown when starting in their own territory.  They are 3-44 on scoring any points (3 field goals)

Overall, against all BCS teams, Nebraska's offense has gone 2-68 on scoring a touchdown when starting in their own territory (interestingly, both came in the 4th quarter vs. Missouri).  The next closest BCS team is 5 (Vanderbilt).  Even my school, Washington State University, has scored touchdowns 6 times from their own territory (and they a dismal squad of "football" players).

These numbers certainly are alarming.  However, the defense is almost the exact opposite!  11 of the 12 Big 12 teams have allowed a conference foe to cross midfield and score a touchdown in each contest.  Nebraska is the outlier, the Blackshirts haven't allowed an offensive touchdown drive of over 50 yards 3 times (Missouri, Baylor, Oklahoma).

Ultimately, the Huskers are still in the race.  They can turn the offense around, and I promise you Husker fans, it will happen soon. 

Nebraska 10, Oklahoma 3

Nebraska overcomes a lack of offense and compensates with a great defensive performance.  Although the Huskers only produced 180 yards of offense, they were able to produce 5 turnovers, including an interception return to the 1 yard line to set up the lone touchdown of the game.  Let's review the Keys of the Game:

Nebraska needs to...

*Produce some offense

I'm not saying the offense produced much of anything to praise.  However, Roy Helu, Jr. looked like himself out there and the Huskers scored inside the red zone (something they struggled with up to this point).  They produced enough.  The future needs more offense though.

*Stop Landry Jones

Check.  Jones looked uncomfortable out there from the 1st quarter on.  He wasn't able to produce any large plays and Nebraska forced Jones to throw 5 interceptions with 0 touchdowns.

*Get a Defensive Touchdown.

Technically, they didn't.  However, Nebraska's lone touchdown was set up with an interception return by Prince Amukamara to the 1 yard line.  In other words, they basically produced a defensive touchdown.

Nebraska needs to control...

*The clock.

They had a 31 to 28 advantage.  However, they controlled the ball well once they had the lead, keeping Oklahoma's offense of the field.  It shows they controlled the ball well if they were able to have a slight time advantage despite almost half the offensive yardage.

*The line of scrimmage.

Double check.  Both sides of the ball were controlled by the Huskers.  Landry Jones couldn't stay in the pocket because of the Nebraska D-Line, and Roy Helu, Jr. had 138 yards rushing vs. the stout OU defense.

*Their mistakes.

Again, check.  The Huskers had one mistake (botched option for turnover), but limited their other mistakes.  NU had great punts, great defensive control, and made few mistakes while managing an offensive game.

Watch out for...

*DeMarco Murray

They kept the Sooner's most explosive threat under 100 yards and no points.  It looked pretty obvious that the Huskers had keyed on him.

*Roy Helu, Jr.

I knew he'd break back into his original form soon.  Luckily it came with the Huskers needed him most.  He provided offensive explosiveness and gave the O-line some confidence for the rest of the year.

*Mike McNeill.

Who?  McNeill's name was rarely called Saturday night, something I disagree with.  The Cornhuskers set up a great running attack that can hopefully utilize McNeill in play action passes later on this year.

Prediction...

I was off on the score, but right on the outcome.  The Huskers pulled it together defensively to embarrass the Sooner offense.

Game Ball...

The game ball goes to Matt O'Hanlon.  It seems unfair to give it to one defensive player when it was obviously the entire unit that performed well.  Phillip Dillard, Ndamukong Suh, and Jared Crick had phenomenal games, as well as everyone else.  O'Hanlon had a career high in tackles and produced 3 interceptions, including the game clincher.